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WEST REGION · Fri, Mar 20

(8) Villanova vs (9) Utah State

SPREAD: USU -1.5 O/U: 147.5 ML: USU -133 / NOVA +111
SCORING
STAT(8) NOVA(9) USU
PTS FOR75.5 (93)81.2 (29)
PTS AGST69.4 (34)70.2 (48)
NET PTS6.1 (55)11.0 (17)
FG%45.8 (76)49.1 (11)
3PT%37.2 (18)35.7 (62)
FT%74.5 (87)70.5 (225)
SHOOTING VOLUME (per game)
STAT(8) NOVA(9) USU
3PTA25.8 (75)24.4 (113)
3PTM9.6 (31)8.7 (63)
2PTA32.0 (293)33.8 (238)
2PTM16.9 (211)19.9 (44)
FTA17.4 (235)21.7 (58)
FTM13.0 (213)15.3 (80)
DEFENSE & BALL CONTROL (per game)
STAT(8) NOVA(9) USU
STL6.5 (168)8.7 (12)
BLK2.3 (292)2.8 (211)
TO9.1 (15)10.3 (68)
PF15.9 (56)18.5 (260)
AST13.9 (97)17.4 (8)
AST/TO1.52 (42)1.69 (8)
REBOUNDING (per game)
STAT(8) NOVA(9) USU
REB30.7 (150)31.1 (136)
OREB8.6 (181)9.4 (114)
DREB22.1 (142)21.7 (167)
ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY (SOS-adjusted)
METRIC(8) NOVA(9) USU
ADJ OFF EFFN/A113.6
ADJ DEF EFFN/A110.7
ADJ NET EFFN/A2.9
SOS ADJN/A-9.7
COMP RATINGN/A48.0
HISTORICAL BETTING SIGNALS (2014–2025, R64)
SIGNALVALUENOTE
MATCHUP8v940 games in sample
ATS SIGNALNO EDGEEven ATS historically (48.7% fav cover)
O/U SIGNALLEAN OVEROvers hit 60.0% in 8v9 games historically
FAV COVER48.7%Dog covers: 51.3%
OVER %60.0%Avg total: 141.2
UPSET RATE52.5%WARNING: 52.5% historical upset rate — 9 seed wins more than half the time
SEASON BETTING RECORDS (2025–26)
METRIC(8) NOVA(9) USU
ATS W-L-P18-13-115-18-0
ATS COV%56%46%
O/U O-U-P19-13-018-14-1
O/U OVR%59%54%
1H OVR%47%50%
2H OVR%45%57%
(8) NOVA — PLAYER STATS
PLAYERPOSYRHTGPMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKFG%3P%3PAFT%
D. BrennanFSr6' 10"3130.912.410.32.00.80.566%0%0.062%
A. LewisGFr6' 2"3230.312.33.15.21.90.146%27%3.058%
T. PerkinsGJr6' 4"3229.613.75.41.61.20.344%37%5.474%
M. HodgeFFr6' 8"2927.69.23.60.70.40.645%37%4.765%
B. LindsayGSo6' 3"3228.311.92.12.00.70.038%35%6.579%
M. PalmerGSo6' 6"3218.24.41.70.60.60.145%34%2.376%
D. AskewGSr6' 5"3223.010.02.62.11.10.140%41%4.987%
B. PierceCSo7' 0"296.61.20.90.50.20.467%0%0.060%
T. GapareFSr6' 9"916.32.92.90.40.60.826%21%1.682%
C. JeffreyGFr6' 3"218.63.21.11.00.60.050%36%0.780%
Z. StanfordGJr6' 6"105.01.30.50.40.20.050%0%0.375%
M. FlaggsGSo6' 6"12.00.01.00.00.00.00%0%0.00%
W. ChiddickGSr6' 4"21.51.50.00.00.00.00%0%0.075%
(9) USU — PLAYER STATS
PLAYERPOSYRHTGPMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKFG%3P%3PAFT%
M. FalslevGJr6' 4"3431.916.15.83.12.00.352%41%3.376%
MJ Collins Jr.GSr6' 4"3430.417.62.41.60.90.149%37%6.482%
D. AllenGSr6' 5"3325.27.73.04.72.00.446%32%2.362%
A. ElaminFFr6' 9"3319.06.53.00.80.80.445%32%2.779%
Z. KellerFSr6' 10"3313.83.52.10.50.20.157%50%0.553%
T. AndersonFJr6' 9"2511.73.41.20.70.30.241%36%2.071%
K. TemplinFJr6' 9"3418.79.14.20.80.80.952%35%1.765%
G. ClarkFSr6' 9"3416.66.84.30.60.40.471%17%0.252%
E. PerrymanGFr6' 2"3414.24.61.63.10.80.344%30%1.680%
K. KingGSr6' 1"3419.87.63.41.50.60.048%39%3.476%
J. BarnesGSo6' 4"175.50.90.60.70.40.024%23%0.850%
L. KearneyFJr6' 7"124.11.70.40.20.20.037%27%1.2100%
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