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EAST REGION · Thu, Mar 19

(6) Louisville vs (11) South Florida

SPREAD: LOU -7.5 O/U: 163.5 ML: LOU -309 / USF +247
SCORING
STAT(6) LOU(11) USF
PTS FOR81.5 (26)85.7 (6)
PTS AGST70.8 (60)76.7 (160)
NET PTS10.7 (18)9.0 (28)
FG%46.2 (65)43.8 (141)
3PT%34.3 (113)33.2 (157)
FT%75.7 (47)74.0 (109)
SHOOTING VOLUME (per game)
STAT(6) LOU(11) USF
3PTA30.4 (9)28.4 (22)
3PTM10.4 (15)9.4 (37)
2PTA30.0 (330)36.5 (129)
2PTM17.5 (173)19.0 (80)
FTA20.3 (114)26.2 (2)
FTM15.4 (79)19.4 (2)
DEFENSE & BALL CONTROL (per game)
STAT(6) LOU(11) USF
STL6.6 (152)9.1 (6)
BLK3.1 (175)3.9 (73)
TO11.1 (151)11.3 (176)
PF17.0 (129)19.4 (305)
AST15.4 (46)16.9 (12)
AST/TO1.39 (68)1.49 (49)
REBOUNDING (per game)
STAT(6) LOU(11) USF
REB35.3 (22)36.9 (6)
OREB9.9 (75)12.1 (5)
DREB25.5 (17)24.8 (31)
ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY (SOS-adjusted)
METRIC(6) LOU(11) USF
ADJ OFF EFF107.2N/A
ADJ DEF EFF106.7N/A
ADJ NET EFF0.5N/A
SOS ADJ-11.3N/A
COMP RATING51.9N/A
HISTORICAL BETTING SIGNALS (2014–2025, R64)
SIGNALVALUENOTE
MATCHUP6v1140 games in sample
ATS SIGNALLEAN DOGFavorites cover 43.6% in 6v11 — slight dog edge
O/U SIGNALSTRONG LEAN UNDERUnders hit 70.0% in 6v11 games historically
FAV COVER43.6%Dog covers: 56.4%
OVER %30.0%Avg total: 133.1
UPSET RATE55.0%WARNING: 55.0% historical upset rate — 11 seed wins more than half the time
SEASON BETTING RECORDS (2025–26)
METRIC(6) LOU(11) USF
ATS W-L-P15-17-118-14-0
ATS COV%46%56%
O/U O-U-P13-19-114-18-0
O/U OVR%39%44%
1H OVR%42%37%
2H OVR%42%30%
(6) LOU — PLAYER STATS
PLAYERPOSYRHTGPMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKFG%3P%3PAFT%
R. ConwellGSr6' 4"3230.618.74.82.51.20.241%34%9.685%
I. McKneelyGSr6' 4"3328.810.63.01.40.50.141%38%6.886%
J. HadleyGSr6' 7"3227.811.85.21.71.00.357%46%2.570%
M. Brown Jr.GFr6' 5"2129.218.23.34.71.20.141%34%7.684%
S. FruFJr6' 11"3322.09.26.01.30.51.476%50%0.263%
A. WooleyGSo6' 4"3322.18.54.01.80.70.144%34%3.381%
V. ZougrisFJr6' 8"258.82.32.30.70.30.254%0%0.065%
K. RoothsFSo6' 10"2916.45.54.41.00.60.445%22%1.965%
K. RodgersGSr6' 3"3213.83.32.41.40.80.249%37%0.986%
A. KhalifaCSr7' 0"3312.03.21.92.60.40.443%41%1.862%
K. PryorFSr6' 10"226.72.31.90.30.40.243%23%1.050%
C. ShermanGSr5' 11"101.11.20.00.10.10.044%44%0.90%
W. HankeGFr6' 4"101.00.20.40.00.00.133%0%0.00%
S. LeggGSr6' 7"90.90.80.40.20.00.050%33%0.3100%
(11) USF — PLAYER STATS
PLAYERPOSYRHTGPMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKFG%3P%3PAFT%
J. PinionGSr6' 5"3330.014.23.82.31.70.239%38%8.578%
I. NelsonFSr6' 10"3327.115.79.61.21.61.456%15%1.472%
CJ BrownGSo6' 2"3326.911.13.94.81.10.338%25%2.073%
J. OmojafoGSr6' 5"3327.311.55.31.80.80.246%31%2.278%
W. EnisGJr6' 2"3134.116.83.62.51.00.140%37%9.581%
C. SandersFFr6' 6"117.52.81.50.70.30.044%33%0.867%
A. NyorhaGFr6' 5"2611.03.71.72.00.60.239%32%1.268%
T. BeckfordFFr6' 5"217.12.61.70.30.20.249%23%0.673%
D. CollinsFSr6' 9"3214.44.23.20.40.21.559%16%0.660%
I. JonesFSr6' 7"3315.44.52.90.51.20.342%33%2.582%
X. BrownGSr6' 2"312.02.70.71.70.00.022%33%2.050%
D. HaidGSr6' 5"2310.03.32.00.80.70.139%31%1.593%
G. HightowerGFr6' 1"259.63.81.61.70.60.051%20%0.269%
O. NnaniFFr6' 9"11.00.01.00.00.00.00%0%0.00%
NATIONAL RANK COLOR KEY
TOP 10% TOP 25% TOP 45% MID BOT 40% BOT 25% BOT 10%